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NCT06973720 (MET097 in Obesity Overweight or Obesity): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 1 Aug 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial partial failure for this trial. The 3 Feb 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant yet commercially probably insufficient (inferior to tirzepatide).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06973720
Acronym
VESPER-3
Drug Name
MET097
Drug MoA
ultra-long-acting injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity Overweight or Obesity
Human Patients
268
Sponsor
Pfizer / Metsera
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 2057

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2057
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
partial FAILURE (commercially maybe sufficient yet weak clinical benefit in weight reduction moderately inferior to once-weekly tirzepatide)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight reduction compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
186 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
PF-3944 (MET-097i) achieved 12.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss at week 28, which is slightly inferior to 13% placebo-adjusted weight reduction at week 28 by tirzepatide (see add'l link below); well tolerated.
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant yet commercially probably insufficient (inferior to tirzepatide)
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2b, Multi-Center, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Multiple Dose Regimens of Once-Weekly Switching to Once-Monthly MET097 in Participants With Obesity or Overweight (VESPER-3)
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
268
Lead sponsor
Pfizer
Conditions
Obesity; Overweight or Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: MET097; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2025-04-07
Primary completion
2025-12-16
Completion
2026-10-16
Primary outcomes
  • Percent change from baseline in body weight at Week 28 (Baseline (Week 0) through Week 28 (Day 197))

NCT06973720 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials