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De-risking decisions with 95.6% predictive accuracy. Stress-test reliability across your specific strategic parameters.
| Clinical Trial | Certified Prospective Prediction | Prediction Validation | Prediction Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Phase 3 | Prediction Index2161 NCTIDNCT05933577 AcronymINTerpath-001 Drug Nameintismeran autogene (V940) Drug MoA LNP-mediated personalized mRNA cancer vaccine Drug ModalitymRNA medicine Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms IndicationHigh-Risk Stage II-IV Melanoma Human Patients1089 SponsorModerna / Merck Co TickerMRNA/MRK | Prediction Date 26 Jul 2026 Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit in RFS weakly-to-moderately superior to pembrolizumab with RR < 0.7 and in OS weakly-to-moderately superior to pembrolizumab with HR < 0.7) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit in RFS and OS compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'26 Batch 3 | Readout Date 19 Aug 2026 Prediction To Readout24 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationintismeran autogene + pembrolizumab achieved both the primary endpoint RFS and the secondary endpoint DMFS compared with pembrolizumab at the first topline interim analysis; OS data pending Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (RFS) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1516 NCTIDNCT06221969 AcronymREIMAGINE 4 Drug NameCagriSema Drug MoAcombo peptide amylin analog + GLP1R agonist Drug Modalitypeptide Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNutritional and Metabolic Diseases IndicationType 2 Diabetes Human Patients1024 SponsorNovo Nordisk TickerNVO | Prediction Date 24 Mar 2024 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit inferior to tirzepatide in both HbA1c and weight reduction) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically significant yet moderate clinical benefit in HbA1c and weight reduction) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch 12 | Readout Date 4 Aug 2026 Prediction To Readout863 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationCagriSema achieved 15.2% weight loss, which is numerically inferior to 15.8% achieved by tirzepatide in the same trial; CagriSema achieved 1.9% HbA1c reduction, which is inferior to 2.2% HbA1c reduction achieved by tirzepatide in the same trial. Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically partially insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1524 NCTIDNCT05021835 AcronymZEUS Drug Nameziltivekimab Drug MoAIL-6 inhibitor Drug Modalitymonoclonal antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationEstablished Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Chronic Kidney Disease and Systemic Inflammation Human Patients6385 SponsorNovo Nordisk TickerNVO | Prediction Date 24 Mar 2024 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit to SoC with inferior-to-semaglutide efficacy in MACE) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak additive clinical benefit to SoC in MACE reduction) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch Batch 12 | Readout Date 31 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout859 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationziltivekimab failed to the primary endpoint of placebo-adjusted MACE risk reduction (HR = 0.99), which is inferior to placebo-adjusted MACE risk reduction achieved by semaglutide (HR = 0.80 P < 0.001) for non-diabetic obese/overweight patients with established cardiovascular disease (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 | Prediction Index2146 NCTIDNCT06987513 AcronymRECLAIM Drug NamePemvidutide Drug MoAGLP1R/GCGR dual agonist Drug Modalitypeptide Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaMental Disorders IndicationAlcohol Use Disorder (AUD) Human Patients100 SponsorAltimmune TickerALT | Prediction Date 13 Jun 2026 Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient yet moderate clinical benefit in reducing heavy drinking days per week slightly superior to naltrexone with RR < 0.8, slightly inferior to tirzepatide with RR > 1.2, moderately inferior to retatrutide with RR > 1.4) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in reducing heavy drinking days per week compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'26 Batch 1 | Readout Date 28 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout45 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationpemvidutide met the primary endpoint by achieving a placebo-adjusted reduction of 1.45 heavy drinking days per week (P = 0.0014), which is superior to the placebo-adjusted reduction of 0.3 heavy drinking days per week achieved by naltrexone (1.2 days per month, see add'l link below) with RR = 0.21 (0.3/1.45), and superior to the placebo-adjusted reduction of 1.0 heavy drinking days per week achieved by semaglutide (14.7 % x 7 days, 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00305-3) with RR = 0.69 (1/1.45); tirzepatide on AUD trial is ongoing and retatrutide on AUD may be planned, pending for future readout Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to SoC naltrexone in HDD/week) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1863 NCTIDNCT04136171 AcronymCARDIO-TTRansform Drug NameEplontersen Drug MoAGalNAc-conjugated ASO that degrades TTR mRNA Drug Modalityantisense oligonucleotide (ASO) Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationTransthyretin-Mediated Amyloid Cardiomyopathy (ATTR CM) Human Patients1438 SponsorAstraZeneca / Ionis Pharmaceuticals TickerAZN / IONS | Prediction Date 12 Dec 2024 Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially maybe sufficient yet weak additive clinical benefit in 6MWT/KCCQ/all-cause mortality at most weakly superior to SoC alone (tafamidis)) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak additive clinical benefit in CV mortality/CV recurrence compared with SoC alone (tafamidis)) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch 1 | Readout Date 9 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout574 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationEplontersen failed to meet the primary endpoint of the composite outcome of CV mortality and recurrent CV events compared with placebo, and particularly no treatment effect was observed in patients who were on stabilizer therapy (aka. tafamidis) at baseline Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 | Prediction Index2066 NCTIDNCT06721156 AcronymMK-1167-008 Drug NameMK-1167 Drug MoAnAChRa7 PAM Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNervous System Diseases IndicationMild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia Human Patients369 SponsorMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC TickerMRK | Prediction Date11 Sep 2025 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit to AChEI in ADAS-Cog11/ADCS-ADL moderately inferior to lecanemab and strongly inferior to semaglutide) Technical Predictionpartial FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak additive clinical benefit to AChEI in ADAS-Cog11/ADCS-ADL compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 4 | Readout Date 1 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout293 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationMK-1167 did not meet the necessary efficacy criteria to warrant further investigation Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 1 | Prediction Index1941 NCTIDNCT05599984 Drug NameABBV-706 Drug MoAtargets SEZ6 with TOP1i payload Drug Modalityantibody-drug conjugate (ADC) Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms IndicationAdvanced Solid Tumors Human Patients288 SponsorAbbVie TickerABBV | Prediction Date 24 Feb 2025 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient (additive) clinical benefit in OS inferior to SoC featuring a negative biomarker-response relationship) Technical Predictionpartial FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak (additive) clinical benefit in ORR/PFS compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch 1 | Readout Date 1 Jun 2026 Prediction To Readout462 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationABBV-706 achieved 11.3 months mOS for R/R SCLC patients, which are inferior to 13.6 months mOS achieved by the SoC Tarlatamab (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant yet commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1961 NCTIDNCT05552976 AcronymSUCCESSOR-2 Drug NameMezigdomide Drug MoAcereblon E3 ligase modulator (CELMoD) Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassBest-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms IndicationRelapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Human Patients606 SponsorBristol-Myers Squibb TickerBMY | Prediction Date 4 Apr 2025 Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit to carfilzomib and dexamethasone (MeziKd) in OS moderately superior to carfilzomib + dexamethasone (Kd) slightly superior to belantamab mafodotin + pomalidomide + dexamethasone (BPd), slightly inferior to mezigdomide + bortezomib + dexamethasone (MeziVd)) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit to carfilzomib and dexamethasone (MeziKd) in ORR/PFS strongly superior to carfilzomib + dexamethasone (Kd), slightly superior to belantamab mafodotin + pomalidomide + dexamethasone (BPd), slightly superior to mezigdomide + bortezomib + dexamethasone (MeziVd)) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 1 | Readout Date 29 May 2026 Prediction To Readout420 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationmezigdomide + carfilzomib + dexamethasone (MeziKd) achieved statistically significant superior-to-Kd PFS (HR 0.48; p<0.0001); OS data pending Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant (PFS) and commercially TBD (OS pending) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 1 Phase 2 | Prediction Index2085 NCTIDNCT04821089 AcronymLANTIC Drug NameIPN10200 (corabotase) Drug MoArecombinant protein longer-acting hybrid botulinum toxin A/B Drug Modalityprotein Drug ClassBest-In-Class Therapeutic AreaSkin and Connective Tissue Diseases IndicationModerate to Severe Upper Facial Lines Human Patients727 SponsorIpsen S.A. TickerIPSEY | Prediction Date 12 Nov 2025 Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate slightly superior to BOTOX/Dysport for male/female patients, moderately superior to BOTOX/Dysport for female/autoimmune patients) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 3 | Readout Date 16 May 2026 Prediction To Readout185 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationcorabotase 50mg showed 66% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 60.4% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24, which is slightly superior to 54.3% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 36.5% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24 achieved by Disport Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to Disport) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 1 Phase 2 | Prediction Index1480 NCTIDNCT05668741 Drug NameVX-522 Drug MoALNP-mediated CTFR mRNA medicine Drug ModalitymRNA medicine Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaRespiratory Tract Diseases Indicationcystic fibrosis Human Patients26 SponsorModerna / Vertex TickerMRNA/VRTX | Prediction Date 21 Aug 2024 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in phase 1 toxicity endpoint) partial FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet weak clinical benefit in phase 3 efficacy endpoint) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ4'24 Batch 13 | Readout Date 4 May 2026 Prediction To Readout621 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationVX-522's further development has been discontinued. Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically probably insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |