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| Clinical Trial | Certified Prospective Prediction | Prediction Validation | Prediction Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Phase 1 Phase 2 | Prediction Index2085 NCTIDNCT04821089 Drug NameIPN10200 (corabotase) Drug MoArecombinant protein longer-acting hybrid botulinum toxin A/B Drug Modalityprotein Drug ClassBest-In-Class Therapeutic AreaSkin and Connective Tissue Diseases IndicationModerate to Severe Upper Facial Lines Human Patients727 SponsorIpsen S.A. TickerIPSEY | Prediction Date 12 Nov 2025 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate compared with placebo) Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate slightly superior to BOTOX/Dysport for male/female patients, moderately superior to BOTOX/Dysport for female/autoimmune patients) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 3 | Readout Date 16 May 2026 Prediction To Readout185 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationcorabotase 50mg showed 66% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 60.4% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24, which is slightly superior to 54.3% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 36.5% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24 achieved by Disport Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to Disport) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index2094 NCTIDNCT06081894 Drug Nameaficamten Drug MoAcardiac myosin inhibitor Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationSymptomatic Non-Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (non-obstructive HCM) Human Patients500 SponsorCytokinetics Incorporated TickerCYTK | Prediction Date 16 Nov 2025 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in KCCQ CSS compared with placebo) Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially maybe sufficient yet moderate clinical benefit in KCCQ CSS numerically-to-slightly superior to metoprolol) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 6 | Readout Date 4 May 2026 Prediction To Readout169 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationaficamten achieved statistically significant 3.0 placebo-adjusted improvement in KCCQ-CSS (p= 0.021) and 0.67 placebo-adjusted improvement in pVO2 (p= 0.003), moderately superior mavacamten as prospectively predicated in No. 1959 ; safe and well-tolerated Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (moderately superior to mavacamten) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index2094 NCTIDNCT06081894 Drug NameAficamten Drug MoACardiac myosin inhibitor Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationSymptomatic Non-Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (non-obstructive HCM) Human Patients500 SponsorCytokinetics TickerCYTK | Prediction Date 16 Nov 2025 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in KCCQ CSS compared with placebo) Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially maybe sufficient yet moderate clinical benefit in KCCQ CSS numerically-to-slightly superior to metoprolol) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 6 | Readout Date 4 May 2026 Prediction To Readout169 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationaficamten achieved statistically significant 3.0 placebo-adjusted improvement in KCCQ-CSS (p= 0.021) and 0.67 placebo-adjusted improvement in pVO2 (p= 0.003), moderately superior mavacamten as prospectively predicated in No.1959 (see add'l link below); safe and well-tolerated Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (moderately superior to mavacamten) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 2 | Prediction Index2083 NCTIDNCT06079190 Drug NameGSK4527226 (AL101) Drug MoAprogranulin-elevating anti-SORT1 Drug Modalitymonoclonal antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNervous System Diseases IndicationAlzheimer's Disease Human Patients367 SponsorGlaxoSmithKline / Alector TickerGSK/ALEC | Prediction Date 12 Nov 2025 Technical PredictionFAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit in CDR-SB/ADCS-ADLMCI/ADAS-Cog14 compared with placebo) Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in CDR-SB/ADCSADL-MCI/ADAS-Cog14 slightly-to-moderately inferior to lecanemab) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 4 | Readout Date 29 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout168 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationAL101 did not show meaningful clinical benefit on interim analysis; program terminated. Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 Phase 3 | Prediction Index2128 NCTIDNCT06907290 Drug NameBrelovitug (BJT-778) Drug MoAtargeting hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) Brelovitug Drug Modalitymonoclonal antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaInfections IndicationChronic Hepatitis Delta Virus (HDV) Infection Human Patients108 SponsorMirum Pharmaceuticals TickerMIRM | Prediction Date 21 Feb 2026 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in the composite endpoint compared with placebo) Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in on-treatment HDV TND and off-treatment HDV TND slightly-to-moderately superior to bulevirtide/peginterferon alfa-2a yet slightly-to-moderately inferior to elebsiran + tobevibart Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ2'26 Batch 3 | Readout Date 27 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout65 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationBrelovitug 300mg QW achieved 30% HDV RNA TND and 45% ALT Normalisation at week 24, which are inferior to 41% HDV RNA TND and 47% ALT normalisation at Week 24 achieved by tobevibart + elebsiran (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 Phase 3 | Prediction Index2123 NCTIDNCT06724614 Drug Name VDPHL01 (extended-release oral oral minoxidil) Drug MoAextended-release oral minoxidil reformulation VDPHL01 (extended-release Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaSkin and Connective Tissue Diseases IndicationMale Androgenetic Alopecia Human Patients480 SponsorVeradermics TickerMANE | Prediction Date 21 Feb 2026 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in non-vellus TAHC compared with placebo) Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in non-vellus TAHC as the first FDA approvable drug for male AGA) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ2'26 Batch 2 | Readout Date 27 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout65 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationVDPHL01 once-daily/twice-daily achieved +23/+25.7 placebo-adjusted hairs/cm² non-vellus hair count at 6 months (p<0.0001); 33.7%/50.4% placebo-adjusted reported hair coverage improvement (p<0.0001); favorable tolerability with no cardiac AEs. Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 1 Phase 2 | Prediction Index1494 NCTIDNCT05120830 Drug NameNTLA-2002 Drug MoALNP-deliverd CRISPR/CAS9-based anti-KLKB1 Drug Modalitygene therapy Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaImmune System Diseases IndicationHereditary Angioedema Human Patients37 SponsorIntellia Therapeutics TickerNTLA | Prediction Date 3 Mar 2024 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit) Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ2'24 Batch 10 | Readout Date 27 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout785 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationlonvo-z (NTLA-2002) achieved 87% reduction in HAE attacks vs placebo in Phase 3 HAELO over 6 months (p<0.0001); favorable safety with all AEs mild or moderate; BLA filing planned 2H 2026. Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (correct efficacy prediction when the asset was still in phase 1/2 stage) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 2 Phase 3 | Prediction Index1195 NCTIDNCT05506943 Drug NameTovecimig (CTX009) Drug MoAbispecific antibody that inhibits both DLL4 and VEGF-A Drug Modalitybispecific antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms Indicationadvanced billiard tract cancers Human Patients168 SponsorCompass Therapeutics TickerCMPX | Prediction Date 3 Nov 2024 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit in ORR/PFS superior to paclitaxel monotherapy regardless of DLL4 baseline expression) Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit in OS superior to paclitaxel monotherapy for high-DLL4-baseline-expression patients) partial FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit in OS non-superior to paclitaxel monotherapy for low-DLL4-baseline-expression patients) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter Ahead Q1'25 Batch 4 | Readout Date 27 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout540 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationtovecimig + paclitaxel achieved 17.1% ORR superior to 5.3% ORR for paclitaxel alone (p=0.031), achieved 4.7 months mPFS moderately superior to 2.6 months achieved by paclitaxel alone (HR = 0.44, p<0.0001) and achieved 8.9 months mOS non-superior to 9.4 months achieved by paclitaxel alone despite crossover (HR = 1.05, p=0.78) Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant (ORR/PFS) and commercially insufficient (non-superior OS) Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 1 | Prediction Index1310 NCTIDNCT03715933 Drug NameINBRX-109 Drug MoAtetravalent DR5 agonist antibody Ozekibart Drug Modalitymonoclonal antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms Indication3L+ mCRC Human Patients411 SponsorInhibrx TickerINBX | Prediction Date 21 Feb 2026 Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in ORR/PFS slightly superior to FTD-TPI + bevacizumab) Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in OS moderately superior to FTD-TPI + bevacizumab) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ2'26 Batch 3 | Readout Date 21 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout59 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationOzekibart (INBRX-109) + FOLFIRI achieved 20% cORR and 5.5 months mPFS, which is slightly superior to 6.1% cORR and 5.6 months mPFS achieved by the SoC FTD–TPI plus bevacizumab for 3L+ mCRC (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically maybe significant (overall slightly superior ORR/PFS) and commercially TBD Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index2112 NCTIDNCT04624659 Drug NameEtavopivat Drug MoApyruvate kinase R activator Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaHemic and Lymphatic Diseases IndicationSickle Cell Disease Human Patients450 SponsorNovo Nordisk TickerNVO | Prediction Date 4 Jan 2026 Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak (additive) clinical benefit in Hb response rate and annualized vaso-occlusive crisis compared with placebo yet with negative dose-response relationship and moderate toxicity) Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient (additive) clinical benefit in Hb response rate and annualized vaso-occlusive crisis slightly inferior to the SoC hydroxyurea) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ2'26 Batch 1 | Readout Date 20 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout106 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationetavopivat achieved statistically significant 27% placebo-adjusted reduction in VOC events and 41.5% placebo-adjusted Hb increase >1 g/dL at week 24 (no p-value disclosed), which are inferior to 44% placebo-adjusted reduction in VOC events and 41.5% placebo-adjusted Hb increase achieved by hydroxyurea (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant (probably borderline) and commercially probably insufficient (inferior to hydroxyurea) Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |