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De-risking decisions with 95.5% predictive accuracy. Stress-test reliability across your specific strategic parameters.
| Clinical Trial | Certified Prospective Prediction | Prediction Validation | Prediction Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1524 NCTIDNCT05021835 AcronymZEUS Drug Nameziltivekimab Drug MoApotentially FIC monoclonal antibody IL-6 inhibitor Drug Modalitymonoclonal antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationEstablished Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Chronic Kidney Disease and Systemic Inflammation Human Patients6385 SponsorNovo Nordisk TickerNVO | Prediction Date 24 Mar 2024 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit to SoC with inferior-to-semaglutide efficacy in MACE) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet very weak clinical benefit in reducing monthly episodic migraine days) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch Batch 12 | Readout Date 31 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout859 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationziltivekimab failed to the primary endpoint of placebo-adjusted MACE risk reduction (HR = 0.99), which is inferior to placebo-adjusted MACE risk reduction achieved by semaglutide (HR = 0.80 P < 0.001) for non-diabetic obese/overweight patients with established cardiovascular disease (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 | Prediction Index2146 NCTIDNCT06987513 AcronymRECLAIM Drug NamePemvidutide Drug MoAGLP1R/GCGR dual agonist Drug Modalitypeptide Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNervous System Diseases IndicationAlcohol Use Disorder (AUD) Human Patients100 SponsorAltimmune TickerALT | Prediction Date 13 Jun 2026 Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient yet moderate clinical benefit in reducing heavy drinking days per week slightly superior to naltrexone with RR < 0.8, slightly inferior to tirzepatide with RR > 1.2, moderately inferior to retatrutide with RR > 1.4) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in reducing heavy drinking days per week compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'26 Batch 1 | Readout Date 28 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout45 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationpemvidutide met the primary endpoint by achieving a placebo-adjusted reduction of 1.45 heavy drinking days per week (P = 0.0014), which is superior to the placebo-adjusted reduction of 0.3 heavy drinking days per week achieved by naltrexone (1.2 days per month, see add'l link below) with RR = 0.21 (0.3/1.45), and superior to the placebo-adjusted reduction of 1.0 heavy drinking days per week achieved by semaglutide (14.7 % x 7 days, 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00305-3) with RR = 0.69 (1/1.45); tirzepatide on AUD trial is ongoing and retatrutide on AUD may be planned, pending for future readout Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to SoC naltrexone in HDD/week) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1863 NCTIDNCT04136171 AcronymCARDIO-TTRansform Drug NameEplontersen Drug MoAGalNAc-conjugated ASO that degrades TTR mRNA Drug Modalityantisense oligonucleotide (ASO) Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationTransthyretin-Mediated Amyloid Cardiomyopathy (ATTR CM) Human Patients1438 SponsorAstraZeneca / Ionis Pharmaceuticals TickerAZN / IONS | Prediction Date 12 Dec 2024 Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially maybe sufficient yet weak additive clinical benefit in 6MWT/KCCQ/all-cause mortality at most weakly superior to SoC alone (tafamidis)) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak additive clinical benefit in CV mortality/CV recurrence compared with SoC alone (tafamidis)) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch 1 | Readout Date 9 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout574 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationEplontersen failed to meet the primary endpoint of the composite outcome of CV mortality and recurrent CV events compared with placebo, and particularly no treatment effect was observed in patients who were on stabilizer therapy (aka. tafamidis) at baseline Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 | Prediction Index2066 NCTIDNCT06721156 AcronymMK-1167-008 Drug NameMK-1167 Drug MoAnAChRa7 PAM Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNervous System Diseases IndicationMild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia Human Patients369 SponsorMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC TickerMRK | Prediction Date11 Sep 2025 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit to AChEI in ADAS-Cog11/ADCS-ADL moderately inferior to lecanemab and strongly inferior to semaglutide) Technical Predictionpartial FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak additive clinical benefit to AChEI in ADAS-Cog11/ADCS-ADL compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 4 | Readout Date 1 Jul 2026 Prediction To Readout293 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationMK-1167 did not meet the necessary efficacy criteria to warrant further investigation Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 1 | Prediction Index1941 NCTIDNCT05599984 Drug NameABBV-706 Drug MoAtargets SEZ6 with TOP1i payload Drug Modalityantibody-drug conjugate (ADC) Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms IndicationAdvanced Solid Tumors Human Patients288 SponsorAbbVie TickerABBV | Prediction Date 24 Feb 2025 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient (additive) clinical benefit in OS inferior to SoC featuring a negative biomarker-response relationship) Technical Predictionpartial FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak (additive) clinical benefit in ORR/PFS compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch 1 | Readout Date 1 Jun 2026 Prediction To Readout462 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationABBV-706 achieved 11.3 months mOS for R/R SCLC patients, which are inferior to 13.6 months mOS achieved by the SoC Tarlatamab (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant yet commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index1961 NCTIDNCT05552976 AcronymSUCCESSOR-2 Drug NameMezigdomide Drug MoAcereblon E3 ligase modulator (CELMoD) Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassBest-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms IndicationRelapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Human Patients606 SponsorBristol-Myers Squibb TickerBMY | Prediction Date 4 Apr 2025 Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit to carfilzomib and dexamethasone (MeziKd) in OS moderately superior to carfilzomib + dexamethasone (Kd) slightly superior to belantamab mafodotin + pomalidomide + dexamethasone (BPd), slightly inferior to mezigdomide + bortezomib + dexamethasone (MeziVd)) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit to carfilzomib and dexamethasone (MeziKd) in ORR/PFS strongly superior to carfilzomib + dexamethasone (Kd), slightly superior to belantamab mafodotin + pomalidomide + dexamethasone (BPd), slightly superior to mezigdomide + bortezomib + dexamethasone (MeziVd)) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 1 | Readout Date 29 May 2026 Prediction To Readout420 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationmezigdomide + carfilzomib + dexamethasone (MeziKd) achieved statistically significant superior-to-Kd PFS (HR 0.48; p<0.0001); OS data pending Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant (PFS) and commercially TBD (OS pending) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 1 Phase 2 | Prediction Index2085 NCTIDNCT04821089 AcronymLANTIC Drug NameIPN10200 (corabotase) Drug MoArecombinant protein longer-acting hybrid botulinum toxin A/B Drug Modalityprotein Drug ClassBest-In-Class Therapeutic AreaSkin and Connective Tissue Diseases IndicationModerate to Severe Upper Facial Lines Human Patients727 SponsorIpsen S.A. TickerIPSEY | Prediction Date 12 Nov 2025 Commercial PredictionSUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate slightly superior to BOTOX/Dysport for male/female patients, moderately superior to BOTOX/Dysport for female/autoimmune patients) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 3 | Readout Date 16 May 2026 Prediction To Readout185 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationcorabotase 50mg showed 66% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 60.4% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24, which is slightly superior to 54.3% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 36.5% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24 achieved by Disport Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to Disport) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 3 | Prediction Index2094 NCTIDNCT06081894 AcronymACACIA-HCM Drug NameAficamten Drug MoAcardiac myosin inhibitor Drug Modalitysmall molecule Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaCardiovascular Diseases IndicationSymptomatic Non-Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (non-obstructive HCM) Human Patients500 SponsorCytokinetics Incorporated TickerCYTK | Prediction Date 16 Nov 2025 Commercial Predictionpartial SUCCESS (commercially maybe sufficient yet moderate clinical benefit in KCCQ CSS numerically-to-slightly superior to metoprolol) Technical PredictionSUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in KCCQ CSS compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 6 | Readout Date 4 May 2026 Prediction To Readout169 days in advance Readout Data Interpretationaficamten achieved statistically significant 3.0 placebo-adjusted improvement in KCCQ-CSS (p= 0.021) and 0.67 placebo-adjusted improvement in pVO2 (p= 0.003), moderately superior mavacamten as prospectively predicated in No. 1959 (see add'l link below); safe and well-tolerated Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant and commercially sufficient (moderately superior to mavacamten) Prediction ClassificationTrue Positive (TP) |
Phase 1 | Prediction Index1942 NCTIDNCT05029882 Drug NameABBV-400 Drug MoAtargets cMET with TOP1i payload Drug Modalityantibody-drug conjugate (ADC) Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNeoplasms IndicationAdvanced Solid Tumors Human Patients520 SponsorAbbVie TickerABBV | Prediction Date 24 Feb 2025 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in OS as a monotherapy non-superior to SoC for non-CRC advanced solid tumors without further cMET-expression-based stratification) FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit to bevacizumab in OS as a combotherapy inferior to TAS102+bevacizumab for CRC without further cMET-expression-based stratification) Technical Predictionpartial SUCCESS (statistically significant yet moderate (additive) clinical benefit in ORR/PFS compared with placebo without further cMET-expression-based stratification) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ3'25 Batch 1 | Readout Date 1 May 2026 Prediction To Readout431 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationABBV-400 achieved 4.6 months PFS and 10.4 months mOS for 3L+ mCRC patients, which are inferior to 5.6 months PFS and 10.8 months mOS achieved by the SoC Trifluridine/tipiracil (TAS102) + bevacizumab (see add'l link below) Press ReleasePress Release Additional Readout DataAdd'l Clinical Benefit Comparison Data | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically significant yet commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |
Phase 2 | Prediction Index2083 NCTIDNCT06079190 AcronymPROGRESS-AD Drug NameGSK4527226 (AL101) Drug MoAprogranulin-elevating anti-SORT1 Drug Modalitymonoclonal antibody Drug ClassFirst-In-Class Therapeutic AreaNervous System Diseases IndicationAlzheimer's Disease Human Patients367 SponsorGlaxoSmithKline / Alector TickerGSK/ALEC | Prediction Date 12 Nov 2025 Commercial PredictionFAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in CDR-SB/ADCSADL-MCI/ADAS-Cog14 slightly-to-moderately inferior to lecanemab) Technical PredictionFAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit in CDR-SB/ADCS-ADLMCI/ADAS-Cog14 compared with placebo) Timestamped PDFTimestamped PDF Delivered to Clients
Quarter AheadQ1'26 Batch 4 | Readout Date 29 Apr 2026 Prediction To Readout168 days in advance Readout Data InterpretationAL101 did not show meaningful clinical benefit on interim analysis; program terminated. Press ReleasePress Release | Prediction AccuracyCorrect Prediction Clinical Benefit Conclusionstatistically insignificant and commercially insufficient Prediction ClassificationTrue Negative (TN) |