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NCT06771115 (VTX3232 in Obesity without type 2 diabetes): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 8 Feb 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 22 Oct 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06771115
Drug Name
VTX3232
Drug MoA
CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity without type 2 diabetes
Human Patients
176
Sponsor
Ventyx Biosciences
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1906

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1906
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient (additive) clinical benefit in weight loss/tolerability inferior to semaglutide monotherapy)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically insignificant (additive) clinical benefit in weight loss compared with placebo despite moderate toxicity)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
256 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
VTX3232 failed to achieve statistical significance in weight reduction either as monotherapy or as add-on treatment to semaglutide
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2a, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of VTX3232 Alone or in Combination With Semaglutide in Participants With Obesity
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
176
Lead sponsor
Zomagen Biosciences Ltd.
Conditions
Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: VTX3232 Dose A; DRUG: Placebo; DRUG: VTX3232 Dose A in combination with semaglutide; DRUG: Placebo in combination with semaglutide
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2025-01-07
Primary completion
2025-09-10
Completion
2025-09-10
Primary outcomes
  • Incidence Rate and Severity of Adverse Event (AE), Serious Adverse Event (SAE), and AEs leading to study treatment discontinuation through study completion (Day 1 of treatment period through study completion, up to 16 weeks)

NCT06771115 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials