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NCT06724614 (VDPHL01 in Male Androgenetic Alopecia): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 21 Feb 2026, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 27 Apr 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06724614
Drug Name
VDPHL01 (extended-release oral minoxidil)
Drug MoA
extended-release oral minoxidil reformulation VDPHL01 (extended-release
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases
Indication
Male Androgenetic Alopecia
Human Patients
480
Sponsor
Veradermics
Phase
Phase 2 Phase 3

Prediction of , index 2123

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2123
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in non-vellus TAHC as the first FDA approvable drug for male AGA)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in non-vellus TAHC compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
65 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
VDPHL01 once-daily/twice-daily achieved +23/+25.7 placebo-adjusted hairs/cm² non-vellus hair count at 6 months (p<0.0001); 33.7%/50.4% placebo-adjusted reported hair coverage improvement (p<0.0001); favorable tolerability with no cardiac AEs.
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group, Multi-dose Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of VDPHL01 in Male Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia
Phase
Phase 2, Phase 3
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
480
Lead sponsor
Veradermics, Inc.
Conditions
Androgenetic Alopecia; AGA; Male Pattern Baldness
Interventions
DRUG: VDPHL01; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-11-06
Primary completion
2026-02
Completion
2026-09
Primary outcomes
  • Changes in non-vellus Target Area Hair Counts (TAHC) (Month 6)
  • Subjects Evaluation of Treatment Benefit (Month 6)

NCT06724614 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials