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NCT06721156 (MK-1167 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 11 Sep 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 1 Jul 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06721156
Acronym
MK-1167-008
Drug Name
MK-1167
Drug MoA
nAChRa7 PAM
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nervous System Diseases
Indication
Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia
Human Patients
369
Sponsor
Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 2066

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2066
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit to AChEI in ADAS-Cog11/ADCS-ADL moderately inferior to lecanemab and strongly inferior to semaglutide)
Technical Prediction
partial FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak additive clinical benefit to AChEI in ADAS-Cog11/ADCS-ADL compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
293 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
MK-1167 did not meet the necessary efficacy criteria to warrant further investigation
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2 Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind, Parallel-group Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MK-1167 as Adjunctive Therapy in Participants With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
369
Lead sponsor
Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC
Conditions
Alzheimer Disease; Dementia
Interventions
DRUG: MK-1167; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-12-16
Primary completion
2026-06-05
Completion
2026-06-05
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-11-item Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog11) Total Score at Week 24 (Baseline and up to approximately 24 weeks)
  • Number of Participants Who Experience One or More Adverse Events (AEs) (Up to approximately 28 weeks)
  • Number of Participants Who Discontinue Study Intervention Due to an AE (Up to approximately 24 weeks)

NCT06721156 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials