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NCT06712836 (MET097 in Obesity without type 2 diabetes): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 1 Aug 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial partial success for this trial. The 29 Sep 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient (slightly superior to tirzepatide).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06712836
Acronym
VESPER-1
Drug Name
MET097
Drug MoA
long-acting GLP1R agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity without type 2 diabetes
Human Patients
225
Sponsor
Metsera
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 2055

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2055
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
partial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient yet moderate clinical benefit in weight reduction slightly superior to tirzepatide yet slightly inferior to retatrutide)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight reduction compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
59 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
MET097i 1.2mg achieved 14.1% placebo-adjusted weight reduction at week 28 and 18.9%/3.8%/17.0% placebo-adjusted nausea/diarrhea/vomiting at week 12 in VESPER-3; slightly superior to 13% placebo-adjusted weight reduction at week 28 and non-inferior to 21.5%/16.7%/10.5% placebo-adjusted nausea/diarrhea/vomiting at week 72 achieved by tirzepatide 15mg (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient (slightly superior to tirzepatide)
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2b, Multi-Center, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study of 28 Weeks to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Once-Weekly MET097 in Adults With Obesity or Overweight Followed by a 32-Week Extension (VESPER-1)
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
239
Lead sponsor
Pfizer
Conditions
Obesity; Overweight or Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: MET097; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-10-09
Primary completion
2025-07-03
Completion
2026-04-30
Results first posted
2026-08-28
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight at Week 28: Part A (Baseline (last non-missing measurement prior to the first dose), Week 28)

NCT06712836 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials