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NCT06685835 (Brensocatib in Hidradenitis Suppurativa): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Jan 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 7 Apr 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06685835
Acronym
CEDAR
Drug Name
Brensocatib
Drug MoA
dipeptidyl peptidase-1 (DPP-1) inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Immune System Diseases
Indication
Hidradenitis Suppurativa
Human Patients
214
Sponsor
Insmed Incorporated
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1897

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1897
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in HiSCR50 score non-superior amlitelimab/adalimumab/povorcitinib and inferior to SAR442970/sonelokimab/bimekizumab/secukinumab)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak clinical benefit in HiSCR50 score against placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
432 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
brensocatib failed to achieved statistically significant reduction in AN count vs placebo at week 16; Insmed discontinued HS program.
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2b, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Brensocatib in Adults With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa - The CEDAR Study
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
214
Lead sponsor
Insmed Incorporated
Conditions
Hidradenitis Suppurativa
Interventions
DRUG: Brensocatib; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-12-16
Primary completion
2026-02-12
Completion
2026-06-08
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Total Abscess and Inflammatory Nodule (AN) Count at Week 16 (Baseline and Week 16)

NCT06685835 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials