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NCT06556173 (VTX3232 in early Parkinson's Disease): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 8 Feb 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 17 Jun 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06556173
Drug Name
VTX3232
Drug MoA
CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nervous System Diseases
Indication
early Parkinson's Disease (PD)
Human Patients
11
Sponsor
Ventyx Biosciences
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1905

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1905
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in MDS-UPDRS compared with levodopa/tavapadon monotherapy)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit in MDS-UPDRS compared with placebo featuring moderate toxicity)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
129 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
VTX3232’s improvement in MDS-UPDRS Parts II and III combined score at week 6 was neither disclosed nor statistically significant; non-superior to -10.2 improvement in MDS-UPDRS total score achieved by Levodopa at week 26 (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2a, Single Site, Open-Label Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of VTX3232 in Participants With Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
11
Lead sponsor
Zomagen Biosciences Ltd.
Conditions
Idiopathic Parkinson Disease
Interventions
DRUG: VTX3232
Design
Single group · None
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-08-08
Primary completion
2025-04-04
Completion
2025-04-04
Primary outcomes
  • Adverse Event (AE) / Serious Adverse Event (SAE) Incidence Rate and Severity through study completion (Day 1 of treatment period through study completion, up to 6 weeks)

NCT06556173 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials