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NCT06354660 (Retatrutide in Type 2 Diabetes): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 9 Feb 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 19 Mar 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06354660
Acronym
TRANSCEND-T2D-1
Drug Name
Retatrutide
Drug MoA
GIP/GLP-1/glucagon triple receptor agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Type 2 Diabetes
Human Patients
537
Sponsor
Eli Lilly
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1924

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1924
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in HbA1c and weight reduction moderately superior to tirzepatide and strongly superior to cagrisema/semaglutide)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in HbA1c and weight reduction compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
403 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
retatrutide achieved 14.3% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 5.1% placebo-adjusted AE discontinuations at week 40, which is superior to 11% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 3.8% placebo-adjusted AE discontinuations at week 40 achieved by tirzepatide (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Randomized, Multicenter, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Retatrutide Once Weekly Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Diet and Exercise Alone (TRANSCEND-T2D-1)
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
537
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Diabetes Type 2
Interventions
DRUG: Retatrutide; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-04-10
Primary completion
2026-01-22
Completion
2026-02-20
Primary outcomes
  • Change from Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (%) (Baseline, Week 40)

NCT06354660 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials