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NCT06267846 (NBI-1070770 in Major Depressive Disorder): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 6 Jul 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 10 Nov 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06267846
Drug Name
NBI-1070770
Drug MoA
oral anti-NMDAR-NR2B NAM
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Mental Disorders
Indication
Major Depressive Disorder
Human Patients
73
Sponsor
Neurocrine Biosciences
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1662

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1662
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit in MADRS inferior to lumateperone)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak additive clinical benefit in MADRS)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
492 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
NBI-1070770 failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint of MADRS compared with placebo
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of NBI-1070770 in Adults With Major Depressive Disorder
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
73
Lead sponsor
Neurocrine Biosciences
Conditions
Major Depressive Disorder
Interventions
DRUG: NBI-1070770; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Triple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-03-20
Primary completion
2025-07-25
Completion
2025-09-11
Primary outcomes
  • Change in Total Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) Score from Baseline to Day 5 (Baseline, Day 5)

NCT06267846 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials