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NCT06196879 (Verekitug in Severe Asthma): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 17 Nov 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 11 Feb 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06196879
Acronym
VALIANT
Drug Name
Verekitug (UPB-101)
Drug MoA
anti-TSLP receptor (TSLPR) monoclonal antibody
Drug Modality
monoclonal antibody
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Respiratory Tract Diseases
Indication
Severe Asthma
Human Patients
479
Sponsor
Upstream Bio
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 2099

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2099
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit to SoC in AAER/FEV1/ACQ6 slightly superior to tezepelumab yet non-superior to lunsekimig)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit to SoC in AAER/FEV1/ACQ6 compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
86 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
verekitug 100mg Q12W achieved placebo-adjusted 56% AAER reduction at week 24 (p<0.0003), which would probably be slightly superior to Tezepelumab 210mg Q4W that achieved placebo-adjusted 56% AAER reduction at week 52 (see add'l link below); well tolerated
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multi-center, Dose-ranging Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Verekitug (UPB-101) in Adult Participants With Severe Asthma (VALIANT)
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
479
Lead sponsor
Upstream Bio Inc.
Conditions
Severe Asthma
Interventions
DRUG: Verekitug (UPB-101); DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-02-27
Primary completion
2025-12-16
Completion
2026-03-19
Primary outcomes
  • Annual Asthma Exacerbation Rate (AAER) (Baseline up to Week 60)

NCT06196879 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials