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NCT06192108 (Orforglipron in Type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled on…): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Mar 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 15 Oct 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06192108
Acronym
ACHIEVE-2
Drug Name
Orforglipron
Drug MoA
oral GLP1R agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled on metformin
Human Patients
962
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1949

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1949
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit as an oral therapy in HbA1c and weight reduction moderately superior to dapagliflozin)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in HbA1c and weight reduction compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
199 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
orforglipron 36mg achieved 1.7% A1C reduction at week 40; superior to 0.8% A1C reduction at week 40 achieved by dapagliflozin
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Randomized, Open-Label Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once Daily Oral Orforglipron Compared With Dapagliflozin in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Metformin (ACHIEVE-2)
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
962
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Type 2 Diabetes
Interventions
DRUG: Orforglipron; DRUG: Dapagliflozin
Design
Randomized · Parallel · None
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-01-10
Primary completion
2025-09-26
Completion
2025-09-26
Primary outcomes
  • Change from Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c: (HbA1c) (Baseline, Week 40)

NCT06192108 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials