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NCT06173531 (Carbetocin Nasal Spray in Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 28 Jul 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 24 Sep 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as False Positive (FP), a missed prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06173531
Acronym
COMPASS PWS
Drug Name
Carbetocin Nasal Spray
Drug MoA
intranasally delivered peptide as a synthetic analog of oxytocin
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nervous System Diseases
Indication
Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS)
Human Patients
170
Sponsor
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 2047

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2047
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in HQCT slightly-to-moderately superior to diazoxide choline)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in HQCT compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
58 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
Carbetocin failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint compared with placebo
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Missed Prediction
Due to
due to suboptimal disease modeling of PWS that has been permanently improved
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
False Positive (FP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-group Study of Carbetocin Nasal Spray for the Treatment of Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
170
Lead sponsor
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Conditions
Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome
Interventions
DRUG: Carbetocin; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-11-27
Primary completion
2025-10
Completion
2025-11
Primary outcomes
  • Change from Baseline at Week 12 in caregiver-rated Hyperphagia Questionnaire for Clinical Trials (HQ-CT) score (Baseline to Week 12)

NCT06173531 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials