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NCT06132841 (AZD6234 in Obesity): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 6 Mar 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial failure for this trial. The 5 Nov 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially probably insufficient (no disclosure of data usually indicates weak efficacy).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06132841
Drug Name
AZD6234
Drug MoA
long-lasting amylin analog
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity
Human Patients
76
Sponsor
AstraZeneca
Phase
Phase 1

Prediction of , index 1497

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1497
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit for repeated-dose AZD6234; which is inferior to semaglutide with increasing toxicity for elderly obese population with comorbidities)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight loss)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
244 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
AZD6234 achieved statistically significant reduction in weight compared to placebo (no specific number or p-value)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially probably insufficient (no disclosure of data usually indicates weak efficacy)
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase I Randomized, Single-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD6234 Following Repeat Dose Administration in Participants With Overweight or Obesity
Phase
Phase 1
Status
Completed
Enrollment
104
Lead sponsor
AstraZeneca
Conditions
Healthy Participants
Interventions
DRUG: AZD6234; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Sequential · Single
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-11-13
Primary completion
2026-02-03
Completion
2026-03-07
Primary outcomes
  • Number of participants with Adverse Events (AEs) and Serious Adverse Events(SAE) (From Screening (Day -35 to Day -3) to Day 78 (Cohort 1) or to Day 120 (Cohort 2 and 3) or to Day 225 (Cohort 4))

NCT06132841 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials