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NCT06131372 (CagriSema in chronic kidney disease with T2DM with…): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 24 Mar 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 6 May 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06131372
Drug Name
CagriSema
Drug MoA
combo peptide amylin analog + GLP1R agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
chronic kidney disease with T2DM with overweight/obesity
Human Patients
626
Sponsor
Novo Nordisk
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1515

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1515
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit for CagriSema with non-superior-to-semaglutide efficacy in UACR and inferior-to-semaglutide efficacy in eGFR)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit for CagriSema in UACR) partial FAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit for CagriSema in eGFR)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
773 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
CagriSema achieved numerically superior yet statistically insignificant UACR improvement compared with semaglutide;
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
Efficacy and Safety of Co-administered Cagrilintide and Semaglutide (CagriSema 2.4 mg/2.4 mg) Once Weekly Versus Semaglutide 2.4 mg, Cagrilintide 2.4 mg and Placebo in People With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Living With Overweight or Obesity
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
626
Lead sponsor
Novo Nordisk A/S
Conditions
Chronic Kidney Disease; Type 2 Diabetes; Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: Cagrilintide; DRUG: Semaglutide; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2024-04-01
Primary completion
2025-09-24
Completion
2025-11-06
Primary outcomes
  • Change in urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) (From baseline (week 0) to end of treatment (week 26))

NCT06131372 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials