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NCT06079190 (GSK4527226 in Alzheimer's Disease): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 12 Nov 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 29 Apr 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06079190
Acronym
PROGRESS-AD
Drug Name
GSK4527226 (AL101)
Drug MoA
progranulin-elevating anti-SORT1
Drug Modality
monoclonal antibody
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nervous System Diseases
Indication
Alzheimer's Disease
Human Patients
367
Sponsor
GlaxoSmithKline / Alector
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 2083

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2083
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in CDR-SB/ADCSADL-MCI/ADAS-Cog14 slightly-to-moderately inferior to lecanemab)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit in CDR-SB/ADCS-ADLMCI/ADAS-Cog14 compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
168 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
AL101 did not show meaningful clinical benefit on interim analysis; program terminated.
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2, Parallel Group, Randomized, Double- Blind, Placebo-Controlled, 3-Arm, Multicenter Treatment Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK4527226 [AL101] Intravenous Infusion Compared With Placebo in Patients With Early Alzheimer's Disease
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
367
Lead sponsor
GlaxoSmithKline
Conditions
Alzheimer's Disease
Interventions
DRUG: GSK4527226; OTHER: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-10-20
Primary completion
2026-05-14
Completion
2026-08-18
Primary outcomes
  • Change from Baseline in Clinical Dementia Rating - Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) Score for Dose 1 vs Placebo Across Weeks 52, 64 and 76 (Baseline, Week 52, 64 and 76)

NCT06079190 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials