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NCT06013241 (Brensocatib in Chronic Rhinosinusitis Without Nasal Polyps): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 14 Feb 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 17 Dec 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06013241
Acronym
BiRCh
Drug Name
Brensocatib
Drug MoA
DDP1 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Respiratory Tract Diseases
Indication
Chronic Rhinosinusitis Without Nasal Polyps (CRSsNP)
Human Patients
288
Sponsor
Insmed Incorporated
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1399

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1399
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in sTSS/CRS/SNOT22 at least numerically inferior to depemokimab/tezepelumab)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically significant yet moderate clinical benefit in sTSS/CRS/SNOT22 compared with placebo featuring negative dose-response relationship)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
306 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
brensocatib failed to meet primary or secondary endpoints in either 10mg or 40mg arms, inferior to depemokimab/tezepelumab; further development discontinued
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2b, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Brensocatib in Participants With Chronic Rhinosinusitis Without Nasal Polyps - The BiRCh Study
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
288
Lead sponsor
Insmed Incorporated
Conditions
Chronic Rhinosinusitis Without Nasal Polyps
Interventions
DRUG: Brensocatib; DRUG: Placebo; DRUG: Mometasone furoate nasal spray (MFNS)
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-10-30
Primary completion
2025-09-30
Completion
2025-10-30
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline to the 28-day Average of Daily Sinus Total Symptom Score (sTSS) at Week 24 (Baseline and Week 24)

NCT06013241 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials