BioinvestGPT

BioinvestGPT ApS · Research use only

NCT06012240 (Upadacitinib in Alopecia Areata): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 24 Feb 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 30 Jul 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06012240
Acronym
Up-AA
Drug Name
Upadacitinib
Drug MoA
pan-JAK inhibitor with higher efficacy against JAK1
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases
Indication
Alopecia Areata
Human Patients
1500
Sponsor
AbbVie
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1937

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1937
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in SALT<=20/SALT<=10 moderately superior to baricitinib)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in SALT<=20 compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
156 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
Upadacitinib achieved 50.9% placebo-adjusted SALT20 response at week 24; moderately superior to ritlecitinib that achieved 29.1% placebo-adjusted SALT20 response at week 24 (see add'l link below) and moderately superior to baricitinib that achieved 28% placebo-adjusted SALT20 response at week 24 (see DOI-10.1056/NEJMoa2110343)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3 Randomized, Placebo-controlled, Double-blind Program to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib in Adult and Adolescent Subjects With Severe Alopecia Areata
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Recruiting
Enrollment
1500
Lead sponsor
AbbVie
Conditions
Alopecia Areata
Interventions
DRUG: Upadacitinib; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Sequential · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-10-11
Primary completion
2030-04
Completion
2030-04
Primary outcomes
  • Percentage of Participants with the Achievement of Severity of Alopecia Tool (SALT) Score <= 20 (Week 24)
  • Number of Participants with Adverse Events (AEs) (Up to approximately 164 weeks)

NCT06012240 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials