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NCT06003426 (admilparant in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 3 Jul 2026, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 12 Oct 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically partially significant and commercially probably insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT06003426
Acronym
ALOFT-IPF
Drug Name
admilparant
Drug MoA
LPA1 antagonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Respiratory Tract Diseases
Indication
idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
Human Patients
1255
Sponsor
Bristol Myers Squibb
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 2152

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2152
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in FVC moderately inferior to nerandomilast and strongly inferior to inhaled treprostinil)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak clinical benefit in FVC compared with placebo featuring moderate toxicity)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
101 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
admilparant 60mg, but not admilparant 120mg, achieved an undisclosed statistically significant placebo-adjusted improvement in absolute FVC at week 52 (p-value undisclosed), indicating negative dose-response relationship and unremarkable overall clinical benefit non-superior to nerandomilast or inhaled treprostinil
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically partially significant and commercially probably insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-11-04. Third-party data.

Official title
A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of BMS-986278 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
1255
Lead sponsor
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Conditions
Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
Interventions
DRUG: BMS-986278; DRUG: BMS-986278 Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-09-14
Primary completion
2026-10-06
Completion
2027-06-04
Primary outcomes
  • Number of participants that experience spontaneous syncopal events (At approximately 4 weeks)
  • Absolute change from baseline in forced vital capacity (FVC) measured in mL (Up to Week 52)

NCT06003426 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials