BioinvestGPT

BioinvestGPT ApS · Research use only

NCT05971940 (Orforglipron in type 2 diabetes): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Mar 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 15 Apr 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient (non-superior-non-inferior to semaglutide 2.4mg).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05971940
Acronym
ACHIEVE-1
Drug Name
Orforglipron
Drug MoA
once-daily oral GLPR1 agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
type 2 diabetes
Human Patients
559
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1948

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1948
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit as an oral therapy in HbA1c and weight reduction non-superior-non-inferior to semaglutide/GSBR1290 with numerically-inferior-to-semaglutide tolerability)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in HbA1c and weight reduction compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
16 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
orforglipron 36mg achieved 6.3% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 1.4% placebo-adjusted HbA1c reduction at week 40; which is numerically superior to semaglutide 2.4mg’s 6.2% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 1.2% placebo-adjusted HbA1c reduction at week 40 (see add'l link below) orforglipron 36mg achieved 7% placebo-adjusted adverse-effect-caused discontinuation rate; slightly inferior to semaglutide 2.4mg’s 5% placebo-adjusted adverse-effect-caused discontinuation rate
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient (non-superior-non-inferior to semaglutide 2.4mg)
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once Daily Oral LY3502970 Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Diet and Exercise Alone
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
559
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Type 2 Diabetes
Interventions
DRUG: Orforglipron; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-08-09
Primary completion
2025-04-03
Completion
2025-04-03
Results first posted
2026-04-22
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline in HbA1c (Baseline, Week 40)

NCT05971940 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials