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NCT05931367 (retatrutide in obesity with knee osteoarthritis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 9 Feb 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 11 Dec 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient (overall superior to tirzepatide/semaglutide taking into account both efficacy and tolerability).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05931367
Acronym
TRIUMPH-4
Drug Name
retatrutide
Drug MoA
GLP1R/GIPR/GCGR tri-agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases, Immune System Diseases
Indication
obesity with knee osteoarthritis
Human Patients
445
Sponsor
Eli Lilly
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1921

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1921
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in weight reduction and WOMAC score slightly superior to tirzepatide/semaglutide)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight reduction and WOMAC score compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
305 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
retatrutide 12mg achieved 26.6% placebo-adjusted weight reduction, 33% placebo-adjusted reduction in WOMAC pain score and 14.2% TEAE-related discontinuation rate at week 68 , superior to 10.5% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 20% placebo-adjusted reduction in WOMAC pain score, and 3.7% TEAE-related discontinuation rate at week 68 achieved by semaglutide 2.4mg (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient (overall superior to tirzepatide/semaglutide taking into account both efficacy and tolerability)
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3 Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of LY3437943 Once Weekly in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight and Osteoarthritis of the Knee: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
445
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Obesity; Overweight; Osteo Arthritis Knee
Interventions
DRUG: Retatrutide; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-08-01
Primary completion
2025-11-14
Completion
2025-11-14
Primary outcomes
  • Change from Baseline in the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) Pain Subscale Score (Baseline, Week 68)
  • Percent Change from Baseline in Body Weight (Baseline, Week 68)

NCT05931367 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials