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NCT05925114 (S-309309 in Obesity): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 26 Feb 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 4 Jun 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically maybe significant and commercially insufficient (inferior to semaglutide in weight loss efficacy).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05925114
Drug Name
S-309309
Drug MoA
MGAT2 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity
Human Patients
365
Sponsor
Shionogi & Co
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1481

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1481
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit inferior to semaglutide/tirzepatide)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak clinical benefit in weight loss)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
99 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
S309309 achieved less than 5% absolute weight reduction in week 24; inferior to semaglutide 10.9% absolute weight reduction in week 24 (see 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.31982)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically maybe significant and commercially insufficient (inferior to semaglutide in weight loss efficacy)
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Dose-ranging, Placebo-controlled Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of S-309309 in Obese Adults
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
365
Lead sponsor
Shionogi
Conditions
Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: S-309309; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-06-21
Primary completion
2024-04-15
Completion
2024-05-17
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight (Baseline, Week 24)

NCT05925114 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials