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NCT05893537 (CT1812 in geographic atrophy secondary to dry age-related…): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 15 May 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 8 May 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically probably insignificant and commercially probably insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05893537
Acronym
MAGNIFY
Drug Name
CT1812
Drug MoA
allosteric sigma-2 receptor antagonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Eye Diseases
Indication
geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to dry age-related macular degeneration
Human Patients
100
Sponsor
Cognition Therapeutics
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1620

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1620
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
358 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
CT1812 achieved 28.6% slower GA lesion growth compared with placebo yet not statistically significant; and CT1812 discontinued further development in GA (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically probably insignificant and commercially probably insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Double-Masked, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel-Group, Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Oral CT1812 in Participants With Geographic Atrophy (GA) Secondary to Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD).
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
100
Lead sponsor
Cognition Therapeutics
Conditions
Age-Related Macular Degeneration
Interventions
DRUG: Active Comparator CT1812; DRUG: Placebo Comparator
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-06-16
Primary completion
2025-03-04
Completion
2025-03-28
Primary outcomes
  • Change from baseline in Geographic Atrophy (GA) lesion area over 104 weeks in the study eye. (Baseline through Week 104)

NCT05893537 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials