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NCT05872620 (Orforglipron in Obesity or Overweight and Type 2…): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Mar 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 26 Aug 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP). Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient (slightly superior efficacy yet slightly inferior tolerability compared with semaglutide; thus commercially more competitive for obesity with T2DM than for obesity without T2DM).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05872620
Acronym
ATTAIN-2
Drug Name
Orforglipron
Drug MoA
oral GLP1R agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes
Human Patients
1613
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1954

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1954
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit as an oral therapy in HbA1c and weight reduction non-superior-non-inferior to semaglutide/GSBR1290 with numerically-inferior-to-semaglutide tolerability)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight reduction and HbA1c compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
149 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
orforglipron 36mg achieved 8.3% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 6% placebo-adjusted discontinuation rate at week 72; overall non-superior-non-inferior to 6.2% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 3.3% placebo-adjusted discontinuation rate at week 68 achieved by semaglutide 2.4mg (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient (slightly superior efficacy yet slightly inferior tolerability compared with semaglutide; thus commercially more competitive for obesity with T2DM than for obesity without T2DM)
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Daily Oral LY3502970 Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes (ATTAIN-2)
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
1613
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Obesity; Overweight; Type 2 Diabetes
Interventions
DRUG: Orforglipron; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-06-05
Primary completion
2025-08-08
Completion
2025-08-08
Results first posted
2026-09-04
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight (Baseline, Week 72)

NCT05872620 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials