BioinvestGPT

BioinvestGPT ApS · Research use only

NCT05869903 (Orforglipron in Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Mar 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial partial success for this trial. The 7 Aug 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially maybe sufficient (slightly inferior efficacy yet moderately inferior tolerability compared with semaglutide).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05869903
Acronym
ATTAIN-1
Drug Name
Orforglipron
Drug MoA
oral GLP1R agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities
Human Patients
3127
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1953

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1953
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
partial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit as an oral therapy in HbA1c and weight reduction non-superior-non-inferior to semaglutide/GSBR1290 with slightly-inferior-to-semaglutide tolerability)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight reduction and HbA1c compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
130 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
orforglipron 36mg achieved 11.5% placebo-adjusted weight reduction and 7.7% placebo-adjusted discontinuation rate at week 72; slightly inferior to 15.1% placebo-adjusted weight reduction 3.7 % placebo-adjusted discontinuation rate at week 72 achieved by semaglutide 2.4mg (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially maybe sufficient (slightly inferior efficacy yet moderately inferior tolerability compared with semaglutide)
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities (ATTAIN-1)
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
3127
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Obesity; Overweight; Overweight or Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: Orforglipron; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-06-05
Primary completion
2025-07-25
Completion
2027-10
Results first posted
2026-08-14
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight (Primary Treatment Period) (Baseline, Week 72)

NCT05869903 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials