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NCT05822830 (tirzepatide in Obesity): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 17 Jul 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 4 Dec 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant (weight loss) and commercially sufficient (superior to semaglutide's efficacy).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05822830
Acronym
SURMOUNT-5
Drug Name
tirzepatide
Drug MoA
GLP1R/GIPR-biased dual agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity
Human Patients
700
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1685

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1685
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in stratified weight reduction superior to semaglutide)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in overall weight reduction superior to semaglutide)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
140 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
tirzepatide achieved 20.2% weight loss at week 72; which is superior to semaglutide that achieved 13.7% weight loss at week 72 as the active control arm; tirzepatide achieved superiority over semaglutide in all the five key secondary endpoints (e.g. 31.6% of people taking tirzepatide achieved at least 25% body weight loss compared to 16.1% of those taking semaglutide)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant (weight loss) and commercially sufficient (superior to semaglutide's efficacy)
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3b, Randomized Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Compared to Semaglutide in Adults Who Have Obesity or Overweight With Weight Related Comorbidities
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
751
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Obesity; Overweight
Interventions
DRUG: Tirzepatide; DRUG: Semaglutide
Design
Randomized · Parallel · None
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-04-21
Primary completion
2024-11-13
Completion
2024-11-13
Results first posted
2025-11-26
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight (Baseline, Week 72)

NCT05822830 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials