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NCT05810961 (Efgartigimod in Membranous Nephropathy): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Nov 2023, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 31 Oct 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05810961
Drug Name
Efgartigimod
Drug MoA
FcRn receptor inhibitor
Drug Modality
antibody fragment biologic
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Immune System Diseases
Indication
Membranous Nephropathy
Human Patients
8
Sponsor
argenx
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1353

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1353
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically significant yet moderate clinical benefit in UPCR) partial FAILURE (statistically insignificant clinical benefit in eGFR)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
336 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
efgartigimod failed to achieve sufficient clinical benefit and further development discontinued
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blinded, Placebo-controlled, Proof-of-Concept Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Efgartigimod in Chinese Patients with Primary Membranous Nephropathy
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
8
Lead sponsor
argenx
Conditions
Membranous Nephropathy
Interventions
BIOLOGICAL: efgartigimod IV; OTHER: placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-02-20
Primary completion
2024-08-05
Completion
2024-08-05
Primary outcomes
  • Change from baseline to week 24 in urine protein creatinine ratio (UPCR) in anti- PLA2R antibody (Ab) seropositive population (up to 24 weeks)

NCT05810961 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials