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NCT05727878 (KPI-012 in Persistent corneal epithelial defect): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 27 Mar 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial partial failure for this trial. The 29 Sep 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05727878
Acronym
CHASE
Drug Name
KPI-012
Drug MoA
human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cell secretome
Drug Modality
protein biologic
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Eye Diseases
Indication
Persistent corneal epithelial defect (PCED)
Human Patients
103
Sponsor
Kala Bio
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1947

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1947
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
partial FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in complete healing; yet there is no FDA-approved treatment for PCED)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically maybe significant yet very weak clinical benefit in complete healing compared with placebo featuring a negative dose-response relationship)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
186 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
KPI-012 failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint in complete healing compared with placebo
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of KPI-012 Ophthalmic Solution in Participants With Persistent Corneal Epithelial Defect (PCED)
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
103
Lead sponsor
Combangio, Inc
Conditions
Persistent Corneal Epithelial Defect
Interventions
DRUG: KPI-012; DRUG: KPI-012 Vehicle
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-02-07
Primary completion
2025-09-29
Completion
2025-10-19
Primary outcomes
  • Response status (Day 56)

NCT05727878 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials