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NCT05620823 (Povorcitinib in Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 26 Oct 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial failure for this trial. The 17 Mar 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant yet commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05620823
Acronym
STOP-HS1
Drug Name
Povorcitinib (INCB054707)
Drug MoA
JAK1 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Immune System Diseases
Indication
Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa
Human Patients
608
Sponsor
Incyte Corporation
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1810

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1810
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in HiSCR50 score non-superior to adalimumab and inferior to sonelokimab/bimekizumab/secukinumab)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant yet moderate clinical benefit in HiSCR50 score against placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
142 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
povorcitinib has achieved a 10.9% placebo-adjusted HiSCR50; non-superior to 15.6%-31.3% placebo-adjusted HiSCR50 achieved by adalimumab (DOI-10.1056/NEJMoa1504370) and inferior to 22% placebo-adjusted HiSCR50 achieved by bimekizumab (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant yet commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 3, Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Efficacy and Safety Study of Povorcitinib (INCB054707) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
608
Lead sponsor
Incyte Corporation
Conditions
Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS)
Interventions
DRUG: Povorcitinib; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2022-12-19
Primary completion
2025-02-03
Completion
2025-12-23
Primary outcomes
  • Proportion of participants who achieve Hidradenitis Suppurativa Clinical Response (HiSCR) (Week 12)

NCT05620823 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials