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NCT05565742 (muvalaplin in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 21 Aug 2022, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 30 Mar 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05565742
Acronym
ALPACA
Drug Name
muvalaplin
Drug MoA
anti-Lp(a) inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Cardiovascular Diseases
Indication
atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
Human Patients
216
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 705

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
705
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
952 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
lepodisiran met the primary endpoint by achieving a 93.9% placebo-adjusted reduction in Lp(a) levels with the highest tested dose (400mg)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of LY3819469 in Adults With Elevated Lipoprotein(a)
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
320
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Lipoprotein Disorder
Interventions
DRUG: LY3819469; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2022-10-20
Primary completion
2023-10-23
Completion
2024-10-17
Results first posted
2025-05-28
Primary outcomes
  • Percent Change From Baseline in Time Averaged Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] Over Days 60-180 (Baseline, Days 60 - 180)

NCT05565742 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials