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NCT05550532 (Aticaprant in Major Depressive Disorder): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 18 Mar 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 6 Mar 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05550532
Acronym
VENTURA-2
Drug Name
Aticaprant
Drug MoA
selective KOR antagonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Mental Disorders
Indication
Major Depressive Disorder (MDD)
Human Patients
444
Sponsor
Johnson & Johnson
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1506

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1506
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit inferior to quetiapine or lumateperone)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet very weak additive clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
353 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
aticaprant discontinued further development due to insufficient efficacy
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Parallel-group, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Aticaprant 10 mg as Adjunctive Therapy in Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) With Moderate-to-severe Anhedonia and Inadequate Response to Current Antidepressant Therapy
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
444
Lead sponsor
Janssen Research & Development, LLC
Conditions
Depressive Disorder, Major; Anhedonia
Interventions
DRUG: Aticaprant; OTHER: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2022-12-06
Primary completion
2024-11-08
Completion
2024-11-13
Results first posted
2026-01-02
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline to Day 43 in the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) Total Score (Baseline (Day 1) to Day 43)

NCT05550532 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials