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NCT05511025 (AZD6234 in Obesity): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 6 Mar 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial failure for this trial. The 5 Nov 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially probably insufficient (no disclosure of data usually indicates weak efficacy).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05511025
Drug Name
AZD6234
Drug MoA
long-lasting amylin analog
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Obesity
Human Patients
54
Sponsor
AstraZeneca
Phase
Phase 1

Prediction of , index 1496

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1496
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit for single-dose AZD6234+acetaminophen; which is non-inferior to semaglutide for nondiabetic obese population and inferior to semaglutide for diabetic obese population)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in weight loss)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
244 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
AZD6234 achieved statistically significant reduction in weight compared to placebo (no specific number or p-value)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially probably insufficient (no disclosure of data usually indicates weak efficacy)
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase I Randomized Single-blind Placebo-controlled Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of AZD6234 Following Single Ascending Dose Administration to Healthy Subjects Who Are Overweight or Obese
Phase
Phase 1
Status
Completed
Enrollment
54
Lead sponsor
AstraZeneca
Conditions
Healthy Participants
Interventions
DRUG: AZD6234; DRUG: Placebo; COMBINATION_PRODUCT: Acetaminophen
Design
Randomized · Sequential · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2022-09-20
Primary completion
2023-12-19
Completion
2023-12-19
Primary outcomes
  • Number of participants with AEs and Serious Adverse Events(SAE) (From Screening until Follow up (Day 43))

NCT05511025 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials