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NCT05501054 (Ciforadenant in 1L metastatic renal cell cancer): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 8 May 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 17 Oct 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant (non-superior ORR/PFS) and commercially insufficient (non-superior OS).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05501054
Drug Name
Ciforadenant
Drug MoA
adenosine A2a Receptor Antagonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Neoplasms
Indication
1L metastatic renal cell cancer (RCC)
Human Patients
50
Sponsor
Corvus Pharmaceuticals
Phase
Phase 1 Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1121

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1121
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefitS to nivolumab + ipilimumab in OS)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (statistically insignificant additive clinical benefit to nivolumab + ipilimumab in ORR/PFS compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
162 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
ciforadenant + ipilimumab + nivolumab achieved 46% ORR and 11 months mPFS; non-superior to ipilimumab + nivolumab that achieved 42% ORR and 11.6 months mPFS (see add'l link below); ciforadenant + ipilimumab + nivolumab achieved a numerical improvement of OS HR by 0.05 compared with ipilimumab + nivolumab (0.69 vs 0.74)
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant (non-superior ORR/PFS) and commercially insufficient (non-superior OS)
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
Phase 1b/2 Trial of Ipilimumab, Nivolumab, and Ciforadenant (Adenosine A2a Receptor Antagonist) in First-line Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma.
Phase
Phase 1, Phase 2
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
50
Lead sponsor
M.D. Anderson Cancer Center
Conditions
Renal Cell Carcinoma
Interventions
DRUG: Ipilimumab; DRUG: Nivolumab; DRUG: Ciforadenant
Design
Single group · None
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2023-02-09
Primary completion
2026-11-01
Completion
2026-11-01
Primary outcomes
  • To establish the objective response rate (ORR) (through study completion and average of 1 year.)

NCT05501054 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials