BioinvestGPT

BioinvestGPT ApS · Research use only

NCT05432596 (ATI-1777 in Atopic Dermatitis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 7 Jan 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial failure for this trial. The 10 Jan 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05432596
Drug Name
ATI-1777
Drug MoA
JAK1/JAK3 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases
Indication
Atopic Dermatitis
Human Patients
250
Sponsor
Aclaris Therapeutics
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 770

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
770
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit due to crowded market)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
3 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
ATI1777 achieved 70% EASI with 11% delta vs dupilumab that achieved 72-80% EASI with 40% delta.
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase 2b, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Vehicle-Controlled, Parallel-Group Study to Determine the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of ATI-1777 in Patients 12 to 65 Years Old With Mild to Severe Atopic Dermatitis (AD)
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
250
Lead sponsor
Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.
Conditions
Atopic Dermatitis
Interventions
DRUG: ATI-1777 2.0% w/w; DRUG: ATI-1777 1.0% w/w; DRUG: ATI-1777 0.5% w/w; DRUG: Vehicle
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2022-05-11
Primary completion
2023-10-26
Completion
2023-11-14
Primary outcomes
  • Percentage change from baseline in Eczema Area and Severity Index Score (EASI) score at Week 4 (Day 28) (Baseline to Day 28)

NCT05432596 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials