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NCT05412004 (Tirzepatide in Obstructive Sleep Apnea): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 9 Oct 2023, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial partial success for this trial. The 17 Apr 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient with a minor miss in GPI2 CPAP.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT05412004
Acronym
SURMOUNT-OSA
Drug Name
Tirzepatide
Drug MoA
GLP1R/GIPR-biased dual agonist
Drug Modality
synthetic peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Respiratory Tract Diseases
Indication
Obstructive Sleep Apnea
Human Patients
469
Sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 716

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
716
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
partial SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit for tirzepatide + CPAP more than for tirzepatide alone)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit more for GPI2 cohort (tirzepatide + CPAP) than for GPI1 cohort (tirzepatide alone))

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
191 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
(-30 AHI -63% AHI%) GPI2 Tirzepatide + CPAP > (-27 AHI -55% AHI%) GPI1 Tirzepatide > ( 33-48% AHI%) GPI2 CPAP [Ravesloot and Vries 2011 Sleep] > (-5 AHI -5% AHI%) GPI1 placebo.
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient with a minor miss in GPI2 CPAP
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Master Protocol to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Who Have Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Obesity: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
469
Lead sponsor
Eli Lilly and Company
Conditions
Obstructive Sleep Apnea; Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: Tirzepatide; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2022-06-21
Primary completion
2024-03-12
Completion
2024-03-29
Results first posted
2025-04-30
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline in Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) (Baseline, Week 52)

NCT05412004 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials