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NCT04999969 (AZD0171 in 1L treatment for advanced pancreatic ductal…): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 7 Dec 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 6 Feb 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as False Positive (FP), a missed prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04999969
Drug Name
AZD0171
Drug MoA
anti-LIF inhibitor
Drug Modality
monoclonal antibody
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Neoplasms
Indication
1L treatment for advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)
Human Patients
126
Sponsor
AstraZeneca
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1861

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1861
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit in OS superior to chemotherapy alone)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit in ORR/PFS compared with chemotherapy alone)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
61 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
AZD0171 + durvalumab + chemotherapy hasn't met the efficacy threshold and further development discontinued without disclosure of data
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Missed Prediction
Due to
due to suboptimal drug MoA model that has been permanently corrected
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
False Positive (FP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Clinical Activity of AZD0171 in Combination With Durvalumab and Chemotherapy in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumours
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
126
Lead sponsor
AstraZeneca
Conditions
Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumours
Interventions
DRUG: AZD0171; DRUG: Durvalumab; DRUG: Gemcitabine; DRUG: Nab-paclitaxel
Design
Single group · None
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-12-10
Primary completion
2024-10-07
Completion
2026-11-30
Results first posted
2025-11-26
Primary outcomes
  • Number of Participants With Adverse Events (AEs), Immune Mediated AEs (imAEs) and Serious AEs (SAEs) (From Cycle 1 Day 1 (each cycle was 28 days in length) until Day 90 (post last dose of study intervention), up to 34 months)
  • Overall Survival at 12 Months (OS-12) (At 12 months)

NCT04999969 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials