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NCT04886258 (DFV890 in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 1 Jul 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 28 Jan 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04886258
Drug Name
DFV890
Drug MoA
oral NLRP3 inhibitor
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Musculoskeletal Diseases
Indication
Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis
Human Patients
115
Sponsor
Novartis
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1639

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1639
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in KOOS inferior to semaglutide despite being numerically superior to LNA043)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak clinical benefit in KOOS)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
576 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
DFV890 failed to achieve statistically significant KOOS improvement compared with placebo (p= 0.0872)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Two-arm, Placebo-controlled, Participant and Investigator-blinded Study Investigating the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of DFV890 in Patients With Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
115
Lead sponsor
Novartis Pharmaceuticals
Conditions
Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis
Interventions
DRUG: DFV890; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-09-20
Primary completion
2024-12-14
Completion
2024-12-23
Results first posted
2026-01-28
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Pain Subscale (Baseline, Week 12)

NCT04886258 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials