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NCT04864392 (LNA043 in Knee Osteoarthritis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 1 Jul 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 31 Jan 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically probably insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04864392
Acronym
ONWARDS
Drug Name
LNA043
Drug MoA
ANGPLT3 agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Immune System Diseases
Indication
Knee Osteoarthritis
Human Patients
583
Sponsor
Novartis
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1632

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1632
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit inferior to semaglutide in WOMAC pain or 6MWD at week 104)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet very weak clinical benefit in medial knee cartilage thickness at week 104)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
214 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
LNA043 hasn't met the efficacy threshold and further development discontinued without disclosure of data
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically probably insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A 5-year, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multi-center Study Assessing the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Intra-articular Regimens of LNA043 Versus Placebo in Patients With Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
576
Lead sponsor
Novartis Pharmaceuticals
Conditions
Osteoarthritis
Interventions
DRUG: LNA043; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-05-31
Primary completion
2024-09-29
Completion
2025-05-29
Results first posted
2026-03-30
Primary outcomes
  • Change From Baseline in Cartilage Thickness in the Central Medial Tibiofemoral Compartment (cMTFC) of the Target Knee at Week 104 (Baseline, Week 104)

NCT04864392 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials