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NCT04821089 (IPN10200 in Moderate to Severe Upper Facial Lines): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 12 Nov 2025, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 16 May 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to Disport).

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04821089
Acronym
LANTIC
Drug Name
IPN10200 (corabotase)
Drug MoA
recombinant protein longer-acting hybrid botulinum toxin A/B
Drug Modality
protein
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases
Indication
Moderate to Severe Upper Facial Lines
Human Patients
727
Sponsor
Ipsen S.A.
Phase
Phase 1 Phase 2

Prediction of , index 2085

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2085
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate slightly superior to BOTOX/Dysport for male/female patients, moderately superior to BOTOX/Dysport for female/autoimmune patients)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in wrinkle reduction clinical response rate compared with placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
185 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
corabotase 50mg showed 66% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 60.4% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24, which is slightly superior to 54.3% placebo-adjusted ≥2-grade improvement in composite response at week 4 and 36.5% placebo-adjusted improvement in sustained duration of effect at week 24 achieved by Disport
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient (superior to Disport)
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase Ib/II, Multicentre, Double-blind, Randomised, Placebo-controlled, Dose Escalation and Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of IPN10200 in Improving the Appearance of Moderate to Severe Upper Facial Lines in Adults
Phase
Phase 1, Phase 2
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
727
Lead sponsor
Ipsen
Conditions
Moderate to Severe Upper Facial Lines
Interventions
BIOLOGICAL: Corabotase; BIOLOGICAL: IPN10200 Placebo; BIOLOGICAL: Dysport
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-04-06
Primary completion
2026-08-31
Completion
2027-08-19
Primary outcomes
  • Incidence of treatment emergent adverse events (TEAEs) at each dose (From the baseline to the end of the study (9 months))
  • Incidence of serious adverse events (SAEs) at each dose (From the baseline to the end of the study (9 months))
  • Incidence of Adverse Events (AEs) (or SAEs) leading to withdrawals and Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESIs) (From the baseline to the end of the study (9 months))
  • Response to treatment at Stage 2 for the FHL group (At Week 4)
  • Response to treatment at Stage 2 for the glabellar lines (GL)+ FHL group (At Week 4)

NCT04821089 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials