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NCT04814368 (LNA043 in Knee Osteoarthritis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 1 Jul 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 31 Jan 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically probably insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04814368
Drug Name
LNA043
Drug MoA
ANGPLT3 agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Immune System Diseases
Indication
Knee Osteoarthritis
Human Patients
23
Sponsor
Novartis
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1633

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1633
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet very weak additive clinical benefit in cartilage volume or KOOS)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
214 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
LNA043 + canakinumab hasn't met the efficacy threshold and further development discontinued without disclosure of data
Press Release
Additional Readout Data
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically probably insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Four-arm, Canakinumab Placebo-controlled, Participant, Investigator and Sponsor-blinded Study Investigating the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Intra-articular Canakinumab Followed by Intra-articular LNA043 in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Terminated
Enrollment
23
Lead sponsor
Novartis Pharmaceuticals
Conditions
Knee Osteoarthritis
Interventions
BIOLOGICAL: canakinumab; BIOLOGICAL: LNA043; OTHER: Placebo to canakinumab
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-08-27
Primary completion
2024-06-24
Completion
2024-06-24
Results first posted
2025-07-30
Primary outcomes
  • Change in Cartilage Volume in the Index Region Measured by MRI at Day 197 (Placebo to ACZ885+LNA043 Versus Placebo to ACZ885) (Baseline, Day 197)
  • Change in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Pain Subscale (ACZ885 Versus Placebo to ACZ885) (Baseline, Day 85)

NCT04814368 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials