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NCT04777331 (Prasinezumab in Early Parkinson's Disease): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 30 Nov 2023, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical failure and commercial failure for this trial. The 19 Dec 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04777331
Acronym
PADOVA
Drug Name
Prasinezumab
Drug MoA
anti-alpha-synuclein
Drug Modality
monoclonal antibody
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nervous System Diseases
Indication
Early Parkinson's Disease
Human Patients
586
Sponsor
Prothena / Roche
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1368

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1368
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit)
Technical Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
385 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
prasinezumab failed to meet any primary and secondary efficacy endpoints
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase IIB, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Prasinezumab in Participants With Early Parkinson's Disease
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
586
Lead sponsor
Hoffmann-La Roche
Conditions
Parkinsons Disease
Interventions
DRUG: Prasinezumab; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-05-05
Primary completion
2024-09-11
Completion
2031-06-30
Results first posted
2025-12-02
Primary outcomes
  • DBT Period: Time to Confirmed Motor Progression Event Assessed by Movement Disorder Society - Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) Part III (From study start to end of DBT period to at least 76 weeks)

NCT04777331 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials