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NCT04711252 (camizestrant in breast cancer): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 8 Aug 2026, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 11 Sep 2026 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially probably insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04711252
Acronym
SERENA-4
Drug Name
camizestrant
Drug MoA
SERD and ERα antagonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
Best-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Neoplasms
Indication
breast cancer
Human Patients
1371
Sponsor
AstraZeneca
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 2165

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
2165
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit for camizestrant + palbociclib in OS at most numerically superior to anastrozole + palbociclib with HR > 0.8 yet non-superior-non-inferior to letrozole + palbociclib with 0.9 < HR < 1.1)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak clinical benefit for camizestrant + palbociclib in ORR/PFS numerically-to-weakly superior to anastrozole + palbociclib with 0.7 < HR < 0.9 yet non-superior-non-inferior to letrozole + palbociclib with 0.9 < HR < 1.1)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
34 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
camizestrant + palbociclib achieved only numerically superior yet statistically insignificant improvement in PFS compared with anastrozole + palbociclib; OS data immature
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially probably insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-11-04. Third-party data.

Official title
SERENA-4: A Randomised, Multicentre, Double-Blind, Phase III Study of AZD9833 (an Oral SERD) Plus Palbociclib Versus Anastrozole Plus Palbociclib for the Treatment of Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer Who Have Not Received Any Systemic Treatment for Advanced Disease
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Active not recruiting
Enrollment
1371
Lead sponsor
AstraZeneca
Conditions
ER-Positive HER2-Negative Breast Cancer
Interventions
DRUG: AZD9833; DRUG: Anastrozole; DRUG: Anastrozole placebo; DRUG: AZD9833 placebo; DRUG: Palbociclib; DRUG: Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Triple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-01-28
Primary completion
2026-06-26
Completion
2029-02-01
Primary outcomes
  • Progression-free survival (PFS) assessed by the Investigator as defined by response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 (From randomization until progression per RECIST 1.1 as assessed by the investigator at local site or death due to any cause (up to 5 years))

NCT04711252 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials