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NCT04684485 (SCD-044 in Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 18 Jul 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 2 Jun 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04684485
Acronym
SOLARES-AD-1
Drug Name
SCD-044
Drug MoA
highly selective second-gen S1PR1 agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases
Indication
Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis
Human Patients
250
Sponsor
Sun Pharmaceutical
Phase
Phase 2

Prediction of , index 1687

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1687
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit in EASI75 inferior to dupilumab and non-superior to baricitinib)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak clinical benefit in EASI75 against placebo)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
319 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
SCD044 failed to achieve statistically significant clinical benefit in EASI75 compared with placebo; further development discontinued
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of SCD-044 in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis
Phase
Phase 2
Status
Completed
Enrollment
250
Lead sponsor
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
Conditions
Dermatitis, Atopic
Interventions
DRUG: Placebo; DRUG: SCD-044_Dose 1; DRUG: SCD-044_Dose 2; DRUG: SCD-044_Dose 3
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Double
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2021-07-30
Primary completion
2024-11-11
Completion
2025-03-18
Results first posted
2025-12-30
Primary outcomes
  • Proportion of Subjects Who Achieve ≥75% Overall Improvement in Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI) Score From Baseline to Week 16. (Week16)

NCT04684485 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials