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NCT04513925 (Tiragolumab in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 15 Sep 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 18 Oct 2025 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04513925
Acronym
SKYSCRAPER-03
Drug Name
Tiragolumab
Drug MoA
anti-TIGIT inhibitor
Drug Modality
monoclonal antibody (mAb)
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Neoplasms
Indication
Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)
Human Patients
829
Sponsor
Roche Group
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1786

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1786
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient additive clinical benefit in OS non-superior to durvalumab monotherapy)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet weak additive clinical benefit in ORR/PFS numerically superior to durvalumab monotherapy)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
398 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
tiragolumab + atezolizumab failed to achieve the primary endpoint non-superior to the SoC durvalumab in either mPFS (14.2 months vs 13.8 months) or OS (not reached vs 54.8 months)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Phase III, Open-Label, Randomized Study of Atezolizumab and Tiragolumab Compared With Durvalumab in Patients With Locally Advanced, Unresectable Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Not Progressed After Concurrent Platinum-Based Chemoradiation
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
829
Lead sponsor
Hoffmann-La Roche
Conditions
Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)
Interventions
DRUG: Atezolizumab; DRUG: Tiragolumab; DRUG: Durvalumab
Design
Randomized · Parallel · None
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2020-08-24
Primary completion
2025-05-27
Completion
2025-07-31
Results first posted
2026-06-03
Primary outcomes
  • Progression-free Survival (PFS), as Assessed by an Independent Review Facility (IRF) in Programmed Death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) Positive Analysis Set (PPAS) (From randomization to first occurrence of PD or death from any cause, whichever occurred first (up to approximately 57 months))
  • PFS, as Assessed by an IRF in FAS (From randomization to first occurrence of PD or death from any cause, whichever occurred first (up to approximately 57 months))

NCT04513925 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials