BioinvestGPT

BioinvestGPT ApS · Research use only

NCT04488419 (fosgonimeton in Alzheimer's Disease): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 24 Jun 2024, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical partial success and commercial failure for this trial. The 3 Sep 2024 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Negative (TN), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT04488419
Acronym
LIFT-AD
Drug Name
fosgonimeton (ATH-1017)
Drug MoA
HGF/MET agonist
Drug Modality
small molecule
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Nervous System Diseases
Indication
Alzheimer's Disease
Human Patients
554
Sponsor
Athira Pharma
Phase
Phase 2 Phase 3

Prediction of , index 1628

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
1628
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
FAILURE (commercially insufficient clinical benefit inferior to lecanemab)
Technical Prediction
partial SUCCESS (statistically maybe significant yet very weak clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
71 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
none of the primary and secondary endpoints were met; with numerical treatment effect for APOE4 carriers.
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically insignificant and commercially insufficient
Prediction Classification
True Negative (TN)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind Study of ATH-1017 Treatment in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease
Phase
Phase 2, Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
554
Lead sponsor
LeonaBio
Conditions
Alzheimer Disease; Dementia of Alzheimer Type
Interventions
DRUG: ATH-1017; DRUG: Placebo
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2020-09-28
Primary completion
2024-07-15
Completion
2024-07-15
Results first posted
2025-04-04
Primary outcomes
  • Global Statistical Test (GST) Score (Baseline and Week 26)

NCT04488419 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials