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NCT03574597 (Semaglutide in Cardiovascular risk in obesity patients): BVCT ex-ante prediction vs. reported outcome

On 20 May 2023, BioinvestGPT's BVCT predicted technical success and commercial success for this trial. The 8 Aug 2023 readout is classified on the dashboard as True Positive (TP), a correct prediction. Recorded clinical-benefit conclusion: statistically significant and commercially sufficient.

Clinical Trial

NCTID
NCT03574597
Acronym
SELECT
Drug Name
Semaglutide
Drug MoA
GLP1R agonist
Drug Modality
peptide
Drug Class
First-In-Class
Therapeutic Area
Cardiovascular Diseases and Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases
Indication
Cardiovascular risk in obesity patients
Human Patients
17604
Sponsor
Novo Nordisk
Phase
Phase 3

Prediction of , index 973

Prospective Prediction
Prediction Index
973
Prediction Date
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient additive clinical benefit)
Technical Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit)

Readout of

Prediction Validation
Readout Date
Prediction To Readout
80 days in advance
Readout Data Interpretation
semaglutide + SoC achieved 20% reduction in MACE-3 compared with placebo + SoC (6.5% vs 8.0%; HR = 0.80; P < 0.001) (see add'l link below)
Press Release
Prediction Result
Prediction Accuracy
Correct Prediction
Clinical Benefit Conclusion
statistically significant and commercially sufficient
Prediction Classification
True Positive (TP)

ClinicalTrials.gov record

ClinicalTrials.gov record, retrieved 2026-09-24. Third-party data.

Official title
SELECT - Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in People With Overweight or Obesity
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Completed
Enrollment
17604
Lead sponsor
Novo Nordisk A/S
Conditions
Overweight; Obesity
Interventions
DRUG: Semaglutide; DRUG: Placebo (semaglutide)
Design
Randomized · Parallel · Quadruple
Primary purpose
Treatment
Start
2018-10-24
Primary completion
2023-06-21
Completion
2023-06-29
Results first posted
2024-08-30
Primary outcomes
  • Participants From Time of Randomization to First Occurrence of a Composite Outcome Measure Consisting of: Cardiovascular (CV) Death, Non-fatal Myocardial Infarction (MI), or Non-fatal Stroke (From randomisation (week 0) up to 240 weeks)

NCT03574597 on ClinicalTrials.gov

Return to the dashboardClinicalTrials.gov

How to read these records: evidence · methodology · all trials