We called the Zanidatamab triplet’s OS benefit, locked 19 Jan 2025, 302 days before the readout
BVCT locked a SUCCESS call on the zanidatamab triplet in HERIZON-GEA-01 (No. 590) on . Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported positive results on , 302 days later; the dashboard classifies the readout as True Positive (TP). Three earlier HER2+ calls (No. 1421, 1307, 1095) are also classified correct.
Ex-ante · timestamped . 302 days before the readout. We called the Zanidatamab triplet’s OS benefit — locked .
Palbociclib #1421 (Pfizer) in PATINA — 333 days early.
Zanidatamab #590 (Jazz, HERIZON-GEA-01) — 302 days early.
CT-0508 #1307 (Carisma, NCT04660929) and Evorpacept #1095 (ALX Oncology, ASPEN-06) — both timestamped before readout.
Lead times across the four: 333, 302, 153 and 36 days. Audit each call on the dashboard: #590 · #1421 · #1307 · #1095.
The blind spot
They mine correlations. We simulate causes.
The readout
: moderately superior to SoC. The carousel: HR < 0.8 on OS (the carousel’s wording; the recorded call names no hazard-ratio threshold; OS HR 0.72, published ). Timestamped 302 days early.
SUCCESS (statistically significant clinical benefit in ORR/PFS for [zanidatamab + tislelizumab + chemotherapy] at least numerically superior to [zanidatamab + chemotherapy]; both superior to [trastuzumab + chemotherapy])
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (commercially sufficient clinical benefit in OS for [zanidatamab + tislelizumab + chemotherapy] at least numerically superior to [zanidatamab + chemotherapy]; both superior to [trastuzumab + chemotherapy])
SUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit to trastuzumab + ramucirumab + paclitaxel in ORR as 2L/3L treatments for advanced HER2-overexpressing gastric cancer for phase 2)
Commercial Prediction
SUCCESS (statistically significant additive clinical benefit to trastuzumab + ramucirumab + paclitaxel in OS as 2L/3L treatments for advanced HER2-overexpressing gastric cancer for phase 3)